Smart Money with Keith Springer Saturdays at 1PM and Sundays at 6AM on NewsRadio KFBK 93.1 FM and 1530 AM

What’s in the News – GDP and labor #’s better, the recession is essentially (statistically) over

Posted At : September 2, 2009 2:42 PM

The second look at 2nd quarter GDP this morning (8/27) contained a bit of a surprise to some economists, but no surprise here. The market had been expecting this revision by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to show GDP declined at -1.5% rate for the quarter.  (The BEA preliminary estimate last month showed a -1.0% decline in 2nd quarter GDP.)  This BEA revision showed the 2nd quarter GDP contracted at only a -1.0% rate in the 2nd quarter; appreciably better than the -1.5% estimate. (The BEA will do a final revision of GDP next month.)  The better than expected GDP number suggests that the economy may be getting better at a faster rate than previously thought. In addition to the BEA’s GDP revision reported today (8/27) the Department of Labor released jobless claims for the week ending August 22nd.  Initial Jobless Claims were down -10,000 from the previous week to 570,000.  The news was even more encouraging for the continuing claims (people who are currently unemployed, receiving benefits and filed for unemployment at least 2 weeks ago).  Continuing Claims were down -119,000 to 6,133,000—the 3rd straight week of decline.  If the labor sector has finally turned around, then the stage is being set for a recovery and jobless claims along with the unemployment rate should start to see improvement.

Regards – Keith Springer

Springer Financial Advisors ("Advisor") is a federally registered investment adviser located in Sacramento, California. Advisor and its representatives are in compliance with the current filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the State of California. Advisor's web site and its emails of general distribution are limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of Advisor's web site on the Internet or dissemination of informational emails should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Advisor's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet. A copy of Advisor's current written disclosure statement discussing Advisor's business operations, services, and fees is available from Advisor upon written request. You may also obtain publicly available information about Advisor through the SEC website as follows: http://www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/IAPD/Content/Search/iapd_OrgSearch.aspx. Advisor does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Advisor's web site or incorporated in an email, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is believed to be reliable and authoritative but does not constitute sufficient information to be the sole basis for sound investment decisions and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Advisor) made reference to directly or indirectly by Advisor in its web site, email, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third party web site, will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s). Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client's investment portfolio. Certain portions of Advisor's web site (i.e. articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, Advisor's (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s). Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized advice from Advisor, or from any other investment professional. The information is of a general nature and should not be applied indiscriminately to particular situations wherein it may not be completely applicable. Advisor is neither an attorney nor an accountant, and no portion of the content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice.