Warm Up The Printing Presses
- World banks promise more money
Europe is in the early stages of a deep recession. China is slowing, and the U.S. economy is rapidly grinding to a halt. Quick, to the printing presses! After all, why fix the problem when you can go deeper in debt to cover it up? As the answer to a debt problem certainly must be more debt, right? Who knows how long we’ll be able to live like Wimpy and get our hamburger today and gladly pay for it on Tuesday, it won’t be forever! Ben Bernanke claims to be a scholar of history. Too bad one of his idols appears to be Charles Ponzi, the inventor of the Ponzi Scheme!
There are a number of key issues that are seriously affecting us all, such as: Will there be more stimulus by the Fed? Who’s better, Obama or Romney? What about the impending fiscal cliff? Will Europe break-up or make-up? Is China set for a hard or soft landing? All of which are the very subjects of this week’s Smart Money with Keith Springer. However, The promise of more liquidity by the world banks will at least delay the inevitable bursting of the current liquidity bubble. It absolutely amazes me that the bond markets are allowing the ECB and the U.S. to rack up more debt. All it does is allow Bernanke and his counterparts to continue printing money, and not until the bond markets scream “No more!”, as they did in Greece, Italy and Spain, will the printing presses stop.
The good news is that with the 10-year treasury at about 1.5%, we have a little ways to go. The bad news is that when a crisis of confidence hits, it’s a knockout punch in the blink of an eye with no warning. It took just weeks for Greece’s bond rates to go from 4% to 50% and it will be no different for the rest of the developed world once the dominos start to fall. As Reinhart and Rogoff so eloquently say in This time is Different, and which I espouse in my book: Facing Goliath – How to Triumph in the Dangerous Market Ahead:
“Economic theory tells us that it is precisely the fickle nature of confidence, including its dependence on the public’s expectation of future events, which makes it so difficult to predict the timing of debt crises. What one does see, again and again, in the history of financial crises is that when an accident is waiting to happen, it eventually does. When countries become too deeply indebted, they are headed for trouble. When debt-fueled asset price explosions seem too good to be true, they probably are. But the exact timing can be very difficult to guess, and a crisis that seems imminent can sometimes take years to ignite.”
We don’t want to fight a market that is being pushed up by the Fed and the ECB. But we do want to be out or short at strategic times before the next major crash occurs, which is inevitable. Of course, you can’t just sit in the bank and make next to nothing either. There are plenty of ways to make money in this market and in the dangerous market ahead, but the key is to be tactical, not buy-and-hold, and to do it without all the risk. Be the expert or hire one.
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