These 3 Things Will Keep Stocks Moving Higher… Which May Surprise You

Bear-BullThe clear consensus among investors is that a catastrophic fall in the market is imminent. We all love to focus on the effects of the government and Federal Reserve’s meddling in the economy, most notably a massive 17.5 trillion in debt for the country and another $4 trillion debt held at the Fed. It is truly unbelievable, unfathomable and just downright wrong. I will admit that this danger at our door is not all that far away, so although it might feel like easy street, proceed with caution and have your exit plan ready.

Pessimistic Consensus is the first of the 3 things that will keep stocks going higher. Very simply, stocks do not crash when everyone expects them to. The market loves to ride a wall of worry higher, and this is easily the most unloved rally I have seen in my 30 years in the business. Therefore, our first winner is not going to bring the stock market to its knees, not yet. Not until the other 2 get out of the way at least.

Our 2nd winner that will help propel stocks is Growing Corporate Earnings. Corporate America has become lean and mean, adjusting to the “new economy,” producing goods and services that meet demands of the shrinking consumer base. As I discuss in Facing Goliath – How to Triumph in the Dangerous Market Ahead, the aging 90 million plus baby boomer generation is well past their spending years, while the 65 million Gen X’ers can’t keep up the pace of consumption. This is going to go on for another 5-8 years. Those with money will prosper while those without will languish.

chart 1

Our 3rd and final victor is Negative Inflation. Negative inflation is very low inflation and not quite deflation, mostly because of the fed’s stimulus money printing programs. A capitalist economy needs a level of inflation, or consumers will stop spending because things will be cheaper tomorrow. That’s what happened in Japan.

chart 2
Last week both the PPI and CPI came in at 1/10 of 1% gain. It doesn’t get any smaller than that. This is the one that scares the bejeesus out of the Federal Reserve because Inflation is running well under the Fed’s 2% target. Not until inflation picks up significantly will they even think about raising interest rates. We’re a couple of years away from that, but prepare now and have your portfolio invested properly because when inflation finally gets here, it will get ugly!

Apple (AAPL)
I have been adding AAPL to our growth oriented accounts. The release of their new products slated for September 9th and the opening of China for their merchandise and services should have a profound effect, and I believe the risks warrant participating in the stock at this price.

Investor Strategy
Although I believe the stock market will go higher, the risks are rising. Let’s face it, even trees do not grow to the sky. The key, of course, is to be properly invested with a qualified retirement advisor. This will ensure you are looking at the big picture and getting the returns you need, but with the least risk possible so you don’t get crushed during the next crash or correction. You can’t replace this money….

…… and that’s where we can help. To learn more about The Springer Investment Approach, which is our powerful proprietary Investment Management Strategy designed to manage risk and deliver returns in any market, or to get a free second opinion on your portfolio, simply reply to this email, or give me a call at 916-925-8900 for a no-cost no-obligation today!

 

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Retirement Is More Than A Magic Number

Retirement Is More Than A Magic Number

Smart Money With Keith Springer On KEBK Saturday At 1PM

 

 

 

Smart Money with Keith SpringerAre you trying to achieve some “magic number” for retirement? Find out why this strategy is dead. And where you should turn your focus.

Listen to Smart Money with Keith Springer, now on Saturday at 1PM on News Radio, KFBK.

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What is moving the market’s right now.

Keith Springer Audio

MarketWatch | 8.13.14 | Listen To The Interview

Keith-Springer-On-Marketwatch What is moving the market’s right now. Listen to Keith’s short in-depth interview with MarketWatch’s Larry Kofsky on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, where he discusses what is moving the market’s right now, what the 4th quarter looks like and how investors should be invested.

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The Retirement Tax Bomb

Little-Known Strategies to Legally Pay Fewer Taxes in Retirement

Smart Money With Keith Springer On KEBK Saturday At 1PM

Smart Money with Keith SpringerThere’s a time bomb ticking and it could cost you a small fortune in retirement!Do you know what it is? It’s taxes!

If you don’t have a tax-efficient investment strategy, tens of thousands of dollars – if not hundreds of thousands of dollars could literally be ripped right out of your hands and into Uncle Sam’s pocket.

Discover the little known secrets to legally pay fewer taxes in retirement on Smart Money with Keith Springer, now on a new day and time: Saturday at 1PM on News Radio, KFBK!

Listen to Smart Money with Keith Springer Saturday at 1PM on News Radio, KFBK.

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It’s What You Don’t Know Than Can Kill Your Retirement!

Your Guide to Conquering Retirement’s Unknown Obstacles!

Smart Money With Keith Springer On KEBK Saturday At 1PM

 

Smart Money with Keith SpringerThe most dangerous thing about planning for retirement is not what you do know – it’s what you don’t know. Anyone over age 50 is facing far more challenges in retirement right now than any other generation. So this is no time for guesswork!

Discover how to conquer retirement’s unknown obstacles on Smart Money with Keith Springer, Saturday at 1PM on News Radio, KFBK!

Listen to Smart Money with Keith Springer Sunday at 11AM on News Radio, KFBK.

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Keith Springer’s Smart Money Newsletter 07312014

To learn what’s going on in today’s world with the economy and financial markets, in plain English, and too see where stocks and bonds are headed be sure to watch this brief video update.

Hi. I want to give you a brief update on what’s going on in the world. There’s a lot happening, a lot of economics, a lot on the market. So, let’s sort of recap it and why all the volatility is coming back. A lot of people are nervous here. It is quite a bit. We obviously have a lot of international tensions which are affecting the markets. The only real one that is going to be a concern is Russia if we have a new Cold War. I don’t see that happening. There’s certainly not going to be a real war with Russia. But, it is going to create a lot of tension in the marketplace until we sort of get that resolved, not enough that it’s going to affect long-term investors, but it is an issue. The real problem, real issue, real push me pull you so to speak is the economics, the market, the economy. The Fed is sort of caught between a rock and a hard place. It’s seeing some economic growth. This morning, we saw GDP go up about 4%, a little higher than expected, which was nice for the economy as a whole, but the Fed still sees weakness. They reiterated that they’re not going to raise interest rates any time soon. That was critical. That should keep the market from crashing, really pulling back hard.

What we’ve recently in the last couple of weeks, of course, has been earnings. And sort of the concept, the overall trend of the last six, seven years has been the market goes down right before earnings. Earnings tend to be better than expected. It goes up towards earnings and during earnings. Then, we typically get a sell off right after earnings. That’s what I call sort of the post-earnings nap or the post-earnings slumber. That I think, unfortunately, is what we’re going to see for the next four, five, six weeks. It is that time of year. Hey, we’re in the middle of the summer doldrums. Earnings are just ending. Now, the focus for most people in the headlines especially even in the economic world is going to be on the headlines. We’re going to start to see more of Russia. We’re going to start to see things about China, the rest of the world. Without earnings, people tend to focus on the international events. Even though they don’t really affect the economic events, I do expect sort of a mild pullback over the next four to six weeks. We are due for a correction. I would actually welcome a 10% correction. Our portfolios are designed for that. But, I do think we’ll have a pullback and I am expecting a fairly strong fourth quarter.

A lot of people are asking, “When’s the next shoe going to drop?” You just never know. If interest rates start to rise next year, very likely we could have that bear market or major correction sometime next year. Believe me, it’s something that is normal. Whenever we have a bear market, you know, even trees don’t grow to the sky. Bull markets always end. We have bear markets for six to twelve or eighteen months. They are very normal. They are no fun, but they’re very normal. And they are welcome because they’re needed to consolidate gains. So, in the short term, earnings are over. A lot of focus is going to be on the international situation on the headlines. Expect a little bit of a pullback. In the longer term, our portfolios are designed for that. For the intermediate term, they’re not taking a lot of risk, but designed to get good participation on the upside without all the downside. And I expect the fourth quarter to be fairly strong. Earnings were really good this quarter. If they continue to accelerate into the fourth quarter, then we’ll see stronger earnings.

So, overall, this is not a time or an opportunity to increase risk. In the immediate term, certainly reduce risk. And, you know, this bull market is getting very long in the tooth. We got to be careful, which is why we always invest for need not for greed. Always get the best return that you need, but with the least risk possible. So, always make sure that you’re adjusting and prepared for what’s out there. Thank you.

Keith Springer
KeithSpringer.com

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Are You Flying Blind With Your Retirement?

The Critical Steps to Regain Control!

Smart Money With Keith Spronger On KEBK

Smart Money with Keith SpringerAre you flying blind with your retirement? Do you know exactly where you’re going; or when you’ll get there? Do world events that are out of your control force you to make emotional, versus intelligent financial decisions?

Learn the critical steps to regain control of your retirement on Smart Money with Keith Springer, Sunday at 11AM on News Radio, KFBK!

Listen to Smart Money with Keith Springer Sunday at 11AM on News Radio, KFBK.

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Do Not Fear Inflation, It’s a Long Way Off

-How long will this stock bubble last?

 

Smart Money with Keith Springer 07242014There is much talk about inflation rearing its ugly head any day now, which will destroy our recovering economy as well as stocks. There’s even more fear that the Federal Reserve is behind the 8-ball and will have to scramble and raise rates higher and faster because they will be playing catch-up. That’s just not in the cards for a long time to come.

Get your portfolio stress-tested!

Those who fear inflation sooner rather than later clearly don’t understand the current economic reality in the immediate term and the power of demographics for the longer term. Wages are essentially flat (and have been since the mid 90’s); CPI and PPI continue to come in at or below 2% annually and the biggest indicator, the bond market, is sending the message that deflation is more likely than inflation. The reality is that bond rates may actually go lower.

Smart Money with Keith Springer 07242014

A big concern for the Fed, myself included, is the velocity of money. This illustrates the amount of money that works its way through the economy. As you can see from the chart below, it has been on a downward spiral for the last two decades. If money isn’t circulating through the economy, there can be no inflation.

In the longer term, the demographic headwind will undoubtedly keep inflation low. You see, through the study of demographics, we can successfully forecast the direction of the economy for years to come. We know that consumers have predictable spending patterns at different ages and stages of life, with peak spending occurring between 32 and 48 years old.

Personal consumption, or what people do as consumers, represents about 70% of the GDP. That means that the largest influence on our economic health is how people spend their money. As people age and spend more, the economy grows. Conversely, when a large portion of the population pass their peak stage in spending, we get less spenders and the economy slows. This is at the very core of what I discuss in Facing Goliath – How to Triumph in the Dangerous Market Ahead, and it must be well understood for successful investing.

The combination of a slowing economy from declining Baby Boom spending, which we are living through now, and a slowing of workforce expansion, which comes naturally as people age and retire, will create a deflationary slowdown in the U.S until 2023.

Is This A Bubble?
Are we in a speculative stock market bubble? Absolutely. Because the Fed has created ultra low interest rates, investors have little choice but the stock market. This bubble will end as they all do…by collapsing. You can’t just sit in cash awaiting Armageddon because you are simply losing money safely to inflation and taxes. Plus it could go on this way for months or years. Who would have thought it could go this far? Our job is to be hands on tactical in managing assets so you participate for as long as you can and always to make money in any market.

Investor Strategy
For every investor who is retired or close to it, it is critical to be properly invested and work with a qualified retirement advisor to ensure that you are looking at the big picture and getting the returns you need, but with the least risk possible so you don’t get crushed in the next crash or correction.

…… and that’s where we can help. To learn more about The Springer Investment Approach, which is our powerful proprietary Investment Management Strategy designed to manage risk and deliver returns in any market, or to get a free second opinion on your portfolio, simply reply to this email, or give me a call at 916-925-8900.

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Have You Crossed the Finish Line…

And You Don’t Even Know it?

 

Smart Money With Keith Spronger On KEBK

 

Smart Money with Keith SpringerDo you ever wonder where you are on the road to retirement? Do you ever wonder if you’re “there” yet? If you have enough? Is it possible that you’ve already crossed the retirement finish line, but you don’t even know it.

Listen to Smart Money with Keith Springer Sunday at 11AM on News Radio, KFBK.

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Is The Stock Market Worth The Risk?

Keith Springer Smart Money Newsletter 07172014

Nothing feels better or easier, for that matter, than being invested in stocks when they are going up. The problem arises, however, when the market decides to take one of those classic corrections it does every year or two. When we get those, we get a little anxious wondering if this is the big one and start second guessing ourselves. The real problem is when we get one of those calamities that shaves off 30, 40 or 50%.

Get your portfolio Stress-Tested

Those are the devastating ones because if you lose 50%, you have to make 100% just to break even. And making 100% on your money takes a long time. It also requires you to be invested far more aggressively than you should be. If you are retired or in that retirement red-zone, it could mean the difference of working an extra 5 or 10 years or having to cut way back on your lifestyle. Neither sounds that fun to me, so don’t let that happen, OK?

These big drops used to take decades to re-occur, and will once again once we get back to a normal economy not manipulated by the Federal Reserve. However, when you have an economy such as we have now where the demographics are heavily against us, as I discuss in Facing Goliath – How To Triumph In The Dangerous Market Ahead, the response is either to let the free market economy settle where it should or to manipulate it through economic stimulus and quantitative easing. The first is more painful up front but takes a fraction of the time. The latter delays the curing by creating bubble after bubble.

The latter is where we are now and have been since the demographics started turning down in the late 90’s. Since then we have had stock market crashes in 1998, 2003 and 2008, all created from Fed bubbles.

The issue is that an economy needs spenders to grow. Statistically, people spend the most from about 33 to 48. When you have an aging population that cannot consume what its previous generation did, the economy shrinks. The baby boomers were 90 million strong, followed by the GenXer’s who are only 65 million in size.

The Fed can fight it for a while, but eventually the mountain becomes too high to climb. That’s why we’ve seen trillions of dollars in stimulus and increased debt, but an economy that is just limping along. On the plus side that is also why we’ve seen no inflation.

Are we in another bubble? You bet your booty we are. So when is the next bubble going to burst? It’s going to occur exactly at…hold on, I have to get the door.

Of course the key is for you to always take just the least amount of risk than you absolutely have to in order to get the returns that you need to achieve your goals. Most people don’t know how to calculate their risk or optimize their portfolio or how to build a portfolio that gets the best returns with the least risk possible. Go see your qualified retirement advisor and have them perform a Retired Income and Tax Strategy Analysis as well as a Stress-Test on your portfolio so you can see how your investments will perform in any market that comes our way so you don’t get crushed in the next inevitable crash or correction.

…… and that’s where we can help. To learn more about The Springer Investment Approach, which is our powerful proprietary Investment Management Strategy designed to manage risk and deliver returns in any market, or to get a free second opinion on your portfolio, simply reply to this email, or give me a call at 916-925-8900 for a no-cost no-obligation today!

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