Smart Money with Keith Springer Saturdays at 1PM and Sundays at 6AM on NewsRadio KFBK 93.1 FM and 1530 AM

Market Update: Market rises on wall of worry

Posted At : May 18, 2009 10:32 AM

The market continues to rise on a very rosy view and a wall of worry, which could easily go higher albeit with a long overdue correction. Keep in mind; this is simply a bear market rally in a secular bear market. Recovery rallies within extended bear markets are often very impressive.  If the rallies were not impressive they would not fulfill their function. They frequently last just long enough and carry just high enough to convince large numbers of investors to jump back into a perceived new bull market.  Thus far, this recovery rally has been very impressive. The majority of recovery rallies within extended bear markets tend to last around eight weeks. A smaller number have continued into a third month, and there are a few outliers in history that have extended to as much as five months before the primary downtrend resumed.

In the immediate term, a cause for concern is this erosion in the % of NASDAQ Stocks Above their 10-DMA. With the NASDAQ Comp. down only 2.7% from its May 4 closing high, the % of NASDAQ Stocks Above their 10-DMA has declined to just 41.4% as of yesterday’s close, its lowest level since the Mar. 9 low. The deterioration in this indicator warns that fewer stocks are now participating in the rally, suggesting internal erosion is taking place that is not readily apparent in the Index itself. Given that NASDAQ has been a leader throughout the majority of the rally dating from the Mar. 9 low, an erosion in this Index’s performance may not bode well for the market overall.

Regards – Keith Springer

Springer Financial Advisors ("Advisor") is a federally registered investment adviser located in Sacramento, California. Advisor and its representatives are in compliance with the current filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the State of California. Advisor's web site and its emails of general distribution are limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of Advisor's web site on the Internet or dissemination of informational emails should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Advisor's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet. A copy of Advisor's current written disclosure statement discussing Advisor's business operations, services, and fees is available from Advisor upon written request. You may also obtain publicly available information about Advisor through the SEC website as follows: Advisor does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Advisor's web site or incorporated in an email, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is believed to be reliable and authoritative but does not constitute sufficient information to be the sole basis for sound investment decisions and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Advisor) made reference to directly or indirectly by Advisor in its web site, email, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third party web site, will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s). Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client's investment portfolio. Certain portions of Advisor's web site (i.e. articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, Advisor's (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s). Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized advice from Advisor, or from any other investment professional. The information is of a general nature and should not be applied indiscriminately to particular situations wherein it may not be completely applicable. Advisor is neither an attorney nor an accountant, and no portion of the content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice.