All eyes continue to be on crude oil prices. If they go too high, somewhere around $140 per barrel, it will act as a windshield and the economy will be the bug. Interestingly, just like a couple of years ago when oil helped crush our economy last time, the rise in oil prices has been driven by speculators, and not a lack of worldwide supply. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has said point blank that there are no supply problems and they will continue to pump to keep prices reasonable. Nevertheless, people are still gun shy when it comes to rising prices and inflation, and the trend is still rising prices.
The bigger concern is what happens when the Federal Reserve stops the QE stimulus programs. The combination of higher inflation and no more free money could very well be the top in this market.
Regards -Keith Springer