Do Not Fear Inflation, It’s a Long Way Off

-How long will this stock bubble last?

 

Smart Money with Keith Springer 07242014There is much talk about inflation rearing its ugly head any day now, which will destroy our recovering economy as well as stocks. There’s even more fear that the Federal Reserve is behind the 8-ball and will have to scramble and raise rates higher and faster because they will be playing catch-up. That’s just not in the cards for a long time to come.

Get your portfolio stress-tested!

Those who fear inflation sooner rather than later clearly don’t understand the current economic reality in the immediate term and the power of demographics for the longer term. Wages are essentially flat (and have been since the mid 90’s); CPI and PPI continue to come in at or below 2% annually and the biggest indicator, the bond market, is sending the message that deflation is more likely than inflation. The reality is that bond rates may actually go lower.

Smart Money with Keith Springer 07242014

A big concern for the Fed, myself included, is the velocity of money. This illustrates the amount of money that works its way through the economy. As you can see from the chart below, it has been on a downward spiral for the last two decades. If money isn’t circulating through the economy, there can be no inflation.

In the longer term, the demographic headwind will undoubtedly keep inflation low. You see, through the study of demographics, we can successfully forecast the direction of the economy for years to come. We know that consumers have predictable spending patterns at different ages and stages of life, with peak spending occurring between 32 and 48 years old.

Personal consumption, or what people do as consumers, represents about 70% of the GDP. That means that the largest influence on our economic health is how people spend their money. As people age and spend more, the economy grows. Conversely, when a large portion of the population pass their peak stage in spending, we get less spenders and the economy slows. This is at the very core of what I discuss in Facing Goliath – How to Triumph in the Dangerous Market Ahead, and it must be well understood for successful investing.

The combination of a slowing economy from declining Baby Boom spending, which we are living through now, and a slowing of workforce expansion, which comes naturally as people age and retire, will create a deflationary slowdown in the U.S until 2023.

Is This A Bubble?
Are we in a speculative stock market bubble? Absolutely. Because the Fed has created ultra low interest rates, investors have little choice but the stock market. This bubble will end as they all do…by collapsing. You can’t just sit in cash awaiting Armageddon because you are simply losing money safely to inflation and taxes. Plus it could go on this way for months or years. Who would have thought it could go this far? Our job is to be hands on tactical in managing assets so you participate for as long as you can and always to make money in any market.

Investor Strategy
For every investor who is retired or close to it, it is critical to be properly invested and work with a qualified retirement advisor to ensure that you are looking at the big picture and getting the returns you need, but with the least risk possible so you don’t get crushed in the next crash or correction.

…… and that’s where we can help. To learn more about The Springer Investment Approach, which is our powerful proprietary Investment Management Strategy designed to manage risk and deliver returns in any market, or to get a free second opinion on your portfolio, simply reply to this email, or give me a call at 916-925-8900.

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Have You Crossed the Finish Line…

And You Don’t Even Know it?

 

Smart Money With Keith Spronger On KEBK

 

Smart Money with Keith SpringerDo you ever wonder where you are on the road to retirement? Do you ever wonder if you’re “there” yet? If you have enough? Is it possible that you’ve already crossed the retirement finish line, but you don’t even know it.

Listen to Smart Money with Keith Springer Sunday at 11AM on News Radio, KFBK.

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Is The Stock Market Worth The Risk?

Keith Springer Smart Money Newsletter 07172014

Nothing feels better or easier, for that matter, than being invested in stocks when they are going up. The problem arises, however, when the market decides to take one of those classic corrections it does every year or two. When we get those, we get a little anxious wondering if this is the big one and start second guessing ourselves. The real problem is when we get one of those calamities that shaves off 30, 40 or 50%.

Get your portfolio Stress-Tested

Those are the devastating ones because if you lose 50%, you have to make 100% just to break even. And making 100% on your money takes a long time. It also requires you to be invested far more aggressively than you should be. If you are retired or in that retirement red-zone, it could mean the difference of working an extra 5 or 10 years or having to cut way back on your lifestyle. Neither sounds that fun to me, so don’t let that happen, OK?

These big drops used to take decades to re-occur, and will once again once we get back to a normal economy not manipulated by the Federal Reserve. However, when you have an economy such as we have now where the demographics are heavily against us, as I discuss in Facing Goliath – How To Triumph In The Dangerous Market Ahead, the response is either to let the free market economy settle where it should or to manipulate it through economic stimulus and quantitative easing. The first is more painful up front but takes a fraction of the time. The latter delays the curing by creating bubble after bubble.

The latter is where we are now and have been since the demographics started turning down in the late 90’s. Since then we have had stock market crashes in 1998, 2003 and 2008, all created from Fed bubbles.

The issue is that an economy needs spenders to grow. Statistically, people spend the most from about 33 to 48. When you have an aging population that cannot consume what its previous generation did, the economy shrinks. The baby boomers were 90 million strong, followed by the GenXer’s who are only 65 million in size.

The Fed can fight it for a while, but eventually the mountain becomes too high to climb. That’s why we’ve seen trillions of dollars in stimulus and increased debt, but an economy that is just limping along. On the plus side that is also why we’ve seen no inflation.

Are we in another bubble? You bet your booty we are. So when is the next bubble going to burst? It’s going to occur exactly at…hold on, I have to get the door.

Of course the key is for you to always take just the least amount of risk than you absolutely have to in order to get the returns that you need to achieve your goals. Most people don’t know how to calculate their risk or optimize their portfolio or how to build a portfolio that gets the best returns with the least risk possible. Go see your qualified retirement advisor and have them perform a Retired Income and Tax Strategy Analysis as well as a Stress-Test on your portfolio so you can see how your investments will perform in any market that comes our way so you don’t get crushed in the next inevitable crash or correction.

…… and that’s where we can help. To learn more about The Springer Investment Approach, which is our powerful proprietary Investment Management Strategy designed to manage risk and deliver returns in any market, or to get a free second opinion on your portfolio, simply reply to this email, or give me a call at 916-925-8900 for a no-cost no-obligation today!

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The 401K Crisis

And What You Should Do About It!

 

Smart Money With Keith Spronger On KEBK

Smart Money with Keith Springer

Do you have an IRA or 401K? Discover why Robert Merton, a Harvard Professor and Economics Nobel Prize winner, is warning of a coming 401K catastrophe, and what you should do about it!

Listen to Smart Money with Keith Springer Sunday at 11AM on News Radio, KFBK.

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4 Critical Risks Facing Your Retirement

And How To Tackle Them Head On

 

Smart Money With Keith Springer On KEBK

Smart Money with Keith SpringerEveryone is focused on the risks associated with the stock market. Do you want to know why? Because that’s the only risk the media pays attention to.

But there are 3 other risks that could destroy your hopes and dreams of retiring. Find out what these risks are, and how to protect yourself, on Smart Money with Keith Springer.

Listen to Smart Money with Keith Springer Sunday at 11AM on News Radio, KFBK.

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Keith Springer’s Market Scoop

To learn what’s going on in today’s world with the economy and financial markets, in plain English, and where stocks and bonds are headed be sure to watch this brief video update.

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5 STRATEGIES TO BECOME FINANCIALLY INDEPENDENT

5 STRATEGIES TO BECOME FINANCIALLY INDEPENDENT

Smart Money With Keith Spronger On KEBK

 

 

Smart Money with Keith SpringerImagine the freedom, and power that comes from being financially independent. Imagine if you never had to work another day in your life – if you didn’t want to. Or if you had enough money to do all of the things you ever wanted to. That’s an enormously powerful position to be in. Being financially independent allows you to look at the world, and your life, in an entirely new light.

This week on Smart Money with Keith Springer, discover 5 specific and actionable strategies on how to become financially independent. Listen Sunday at 11AM on News Radio, KFBK.

Listen to Smart Money with Keith Springer Sunday at 11AM on News Radio, KFBK.

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When Will This Economy Fully Recover

Keith Springer Newsletter 06262014The stock market is clearly not the economy. Stocks are near new highs yet millions remain un- or under-employed, wages are stagnant and the government is building enough debt to make a banana republic proud. However, it won’t be this way forever.

Right now, we are facing a demographic wall…or cliff as some like to call it. The reason is that the largest segment in the history of America, the baby boomers, are past their peak spending years and saving money for retirement. It’s easy to understand when you think of it simply. We’ve got 65 million Generation X’ers trying to take the place of 80 million baby boomers. These are the very issues I discuss in Facing Goliath – How to Triumph in the Dangerous Market Ahead.

When the majority of the population is in retirement and dying mode, it leads to fewer buyers of real estate, cars, and home appliances and risky assets suffer. This, of course, leads to slower economic growth, higher budget deficits, and a weaker dollar.

Things change dramatically in 6-8 years. That is when you have 65 million Gen Xer’s being chased by 85 million echo-boomers or millennials trying to buy their assets. Home prices will rise again, labor shortages will make wages increase, growth will come back with a vengeance and so will the stock market….only this time from true fundamentals that we can rely on and not a fabricated economy built from voodoo economics, quantative easing, and money printing.

It will be a true golden age, not just financially but for living standards. New healthcare breakthroughs, many we can’t even imagine now, will make serious disease a thing of the past. Imagine a pill for cancer? From what I hear it’s within reach.

By then Washington political gridlock will subside because one side will eventually win, making the tough choices and pushing through the ever so needed long-term structural reforms that everyone agrees on now, but nobody wants to be blamed for. That may push the retirement age to receive Social Security from 66 to 70 or 75, but that’s where it belongs, especially for those being born today who will live well past 100.

The issue is how to survive and prosper for the next few years as we wean off government stimulus. Corporate profits can’t keep making new highs if there aren’t enough people to buy more and more of their stuff. The key, of course, if you’re retired or close to it, is to be properly invested with a qualified retirement advisor. This will ensure you are looking at the big picture and getting the returns you need, but with the least risk possible so you don’t get crushed in the next crash or correction.

…… and that’s where we can help. To learn more about The Springer Investment Approach, which is our powerful proprietary Investment Management Strategy designed to manage risk and deliver returns in any market, or to get a free second opinion on your portfolio, simply reply to this email, or give me a call at 916-925-8900 for a no-cost no-obligation today!

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The Bull Market Just Celebrated its 5th Birthday.

The Bull Market Just Celebrated its 5th Birthday.
Will There Be a 6th?

Smart Money With Keith Spronger On KEBK

Smart Money with Keith SpringerBull markets only last so long. Does this bull still have room to run? And when the market does come crashing down, is your portfolio positioned and protected? Get the answers on a special edition of Smart Money with Keith Springer!

Keith interviews special guest, Brian J Frank. Discover why his fund has been awarded the Wall Street Journal’s Category King in the Multi-cap Core Category 8 times! Brian Frank tells all, including where he’s investing his own money right now!

Listen to Smart Money with Keith Springer Sunday at 11AM on News Radio, KFBK.

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2nd Annual Springer Spring Fling Photos

The 2nd Annual Springer Spring Fling was on May 31, 2014. We had a gourmet BBQ, Live music featuring: The Banner Mountain Boys, wine, beer, sodas and raffle prizes!

Click Here for the 2nd Annual Springer Spring Fling Photo Gallery

The 2nd Annual Springer Spring Fling was on May 31, 2014.
We had a gourmet BBQ, Live music featuring: The Banner Mountain Boys, wine, beer, sodas and raffle prizes!

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